The elderly autocrats strolled together, guiding a group of foreign leaders to observe a military parade in Beijing.
In an unexpectedly revealing moment, an open microphone captured President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussing strategies for extending human lifespan.
“Human organs can be transplanted indefinitely,” was heard from Putin’s translator. “The longer one lives, the younger they become, and [immortality] is even attainable.”
For Putin, the issue of mortality strikes at the core of a significant weakness within the autocratic regime he has built: will everything collapse when he is no longer in power?
Since his initial election as president 25 years ago, Putin has reshaped the Russian political landscape to reflect his vision.
The ruling party, United Russia, controls 315 out of 450 seats in the Duma and dominates most regional government positions. Human rights observers assert that elections are neither free nor fair, and constitutional amendments he enacted in 2020 permit him to remain in office until 2036, when he will be 83.
These realities lead many analysts to conclude that Putin would not voluntarily relinquish power. If he were to die or become incapacitated, a sequence of political upheaval could ensue, resulting in a situation beyond his control.
Initially, the prime minister would ascend to the presidency. This would place Mikhail Mishustin, a 59-year-old former tax official who has held the position since 2020, in charge temporarily.
According to the Russian Constitution, the Federation Council is responsible for calling elections to select a new president within 14 days.
This is where the situation could become complicated. Analysts believe Putin has not designated a preferred successor.
“If Vladimir Putin were to die unexpectedly or become seriously ill for a week or two, there would be intense pressure to maintain stability and avoid a Time of Troubles,” explained Julian Waller, a professor at George Washington University and a researcher on Russia at the think tank CNA.
“No one wants a repeat of the 1990s or another Russian Civil War,” he added.
Such a scenario could lead to multiple contenders vying for leadership of the country. Experts suggest that Mishustin’s temporary presidency does not guarantee his chances of being elected, and the election process could be used to legitimize a selected successor.
However, there is a critical contradiction within Putin’s inner circle: many potential candidates are also elderly.
Notable figures such as Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin have been identified by analysts as possible heirs to Putin’s legacy. The youngest among them is 66 years old.
“The transfer of power should have occurred some time ago,” noted Waller. “They neglected to do so, and now there is a sort of urgency to rejuvenate the Russian elite in the past few years—particularly since the war began.”
Rather than coming from Putin’s close associates, Waller posited that a successor might arise from a younger generation of officials appointed during the conflict in Ukraine.
Individuals like Alexei Dyumin, the 53-year-old State Council secretary and former bodyguard to Putin, or Dmitry Patrushev, the 47-year-old deputy prime minister for agriculture and son of the former Security Council secretary may maintain the existing system established by Putin, but without the encumbrance of age.
Authorities might also seek to install someone who is uncontroversial and amenable to the demands of political elites.
“It is possible that the individual succeeding Vladimir Putin may not be the most influential figure in the political landscape, at least during that transitional period,” Waller mentioned.
There are few precedents in contemporary Russia for the potential chaos such a leadership change might incite.
The most recent significant crisis faced by the Russian regime occurred in 2023, when Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted a military coup that brought his forces to the outskirts of Moscow.
The authorities were caught off guard, with limited public messaging during the uprising, and the Russian leadership seemed uncertain in its response.
Putin’s death could trigger a similar reaction from both the government and the populace, suggested Margarita Zavadskaya, a political analyst specializing in Russian affairs at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
“His abrupt absence would be shocking, but it is likely that people would adopt a wait-and-see stance rather than mobilizing either against or in support of the new leadership, or commemorating [Putin],” she stated.
In keeping with the traditions of his Soviet predecessors, Zavadskaya proposed that news of Putin’s death might not be immediately made public to allow time for crafting an appropriate response.
Factions outside of the Kremlin and the upper echelons of power are unlikely to play a significant role, she added, while the chronically divided military would require strong motivation to support a new challenger.
While democratic opposition groups would likely attempt to rally anti-Putin sentiment, they have been largely exiled and rendered politically insignificant as a result of the Kremlin’s extensive suppression of civil liberties.
In any case, Zavadskaya asserted that the only certainty regarding a post-Putin Russia is that it is “unlikely to evolve into a democratic regime.”
Putin seems to believe that the legacy he is building through his conflict in Ukraine and standoff with the West will confer its own form of immortality.
During a press conference with Xi this month, Putin referenced the shared “heroic feat” of Russia and China in securing victory during World War II, and emphasized an emerging world order in which their nations are not reliant on the West.
Putin remarked that relations between the two countries “have reached the highest point in history,” emphasizing their self-sufficiency and independence from internal political pressures or fleeting global agendas.
