Military analysts and Russian pro-war bloggers have rejected claims made by Russia’s highest-ranking general regarding the encirclement of Ukrainian forces near the contested cities of Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, areas Moscow has been attempting to seize for months.
In a video released by the Kremlin on Sunday, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov informed President Vladimir Putin that as many as 10,000 Ukrainian troops were “surrounded” near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and Pokrovsk, one of Ukraine’s last major strongholds in the Donetsk region.
“This is completely inaccurate,” remarked military analyst Ivan Stupak, a former officer in Ukraine’s SBU security service, in an interview with The Moscow Times regarding Gerasimov’s claims.
Even some Russian military journalists raised doubts about Gerasimov’s statement, despite often aligning themselves with official Russian narratives, Stupak pointed out.
In a post titled “Enemies have once again infiltrated Comrade Gerasimov’s encirclement,” the pro-war Telegram channel Voyennyy Osvedomitel’ (Military Informant) told its 620,000 followers that there are currently “no encirclements.”
“It is highly improbable that a large Ukrainian contingent is still stationed within the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. Modern conflict is largely driven by small infantry units on both the defensive and offensive,” the post stated.
This statement also applied to Kupiansk, where claims of 18 Ukrainian battalions being encircled were made.
“Perhaps Gerasimov, with his premature claims, is jumping ahead of the actual situation, hoping that reality will soon align with his assertions,” remarked Voyennyy Osvedomitel’.
War correspondent Andrei Filatov described Gerasimov’s report as “premature,” explaining that “merely having logistics under fire control doesn’t equate to encirclement.”
The pro-war Telegram channel Svideteli Bayraktar asserted, “our forces are in Pokrovsk, but you don’t observe armored units entering the city’s urban areas. Small teams are cautiously infiltrating and clearing the area.”
The Tactical Medicine Courses Telegram channel, focused on military medical efforts and fundraising for the conflict in Ukraine, pointed out that the Russian army’s control around Pokrovsk leaves a nearly six-kilometer gap between their flanks, suggesting it is not fully encircled.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that it “has not seen evidence substantiating Gerasimov’s assertions.”
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focused on Russia and Eurasia, also asserted, “there is no widespread encirclement of Ukrainian forces at Kupiansk, and many other claims by Gerasimov are equally unfounded.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the Russian military’s report on Tuesday, labeling it “a falsehood.”
He mentioned that Russia was “showing [the Americans] maps already marked with Pokrovsk as captured, claiming they’ve reached the Dnipro region and taken 90% of eastern Ukraine…In my opinion, they lack the results that they can ‘sell’ to the Americans,” referring to ongoing efforts to facilitate peace talks between Moscow and Washington.
On Sunday, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the situation around Pokrovsk was “complicated” and confirmed the presence of 200 Russian personnel in the area, noting that Kyiv had repelled four enemy attacks near Kupiansk.
On Tuesday, it reported that Russian troops had attempted 79 assaults in the direction of Pokrovsk and had made nine attempts near Kupiansk the day prior.
According to Stupak, Pokrovsk is a strategic target for the Russian army’s progression in Donetsk, which Russia claims as part of its territory. However, capturing Pokrovsk and Kupiansk would primarily result in yet another city devastated by conflict, similar to Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
The ISW commented that Putin’s and Gerasimov’s assertions of battlefield successes are part of an ongoing Kremlin cognitive warfare campaign designed to create the illusion of an inevitable Russian victory.
Previously, Gerasimov had inflated reports about Russia’s summer offensive in August, claiming significant victories throughout eastern and southern Ukraine. Analysts and pro-war bloggers then indicated that the extent of these gains had been exaggerated.
Stupak emphasized that such statements from the Russian General Staff are likely “part of the information war, which impacts public perception and morale,” aiming to foster the impression that the Ukrainian front is disintegrating.
