The hospitality industry may potentially see the departure of an additional 100,000 employees due to the recent Autumn Budget, as indicated by its trade association.
UKHospitality warns that this threat arises from increases in the minimum wage, the proposal of a tourist tax, and significant changes to business rates.
Allen Simpson, the organization’s chief executive, expresses particular concern for youth employment, noting that the sector has already lost around 100,000 jobs since the October 2024 Budget, including numerous entry-level positions.
In response, the government stated, “We are providing support to pubs, restaurants, and cafés through a £4.3 billion package,” asserting that adjustments made mean many “typical independent pubs” are saving approximately £4,800 annually.
Young individuals aged 16 to 24 represent 10% of the total workforce in the UK, yet they constitute nearly half of the workforce in various hospitality positions.
Mr. Simpson points out, “The cost of hiring individuals at the beginning of their careers is escalating.”
Starting in April, the wage for workers over 21 will increase by 50p to £12.71, while those aged 18-20 will receive an 85p boost to £10.85. Workers under 18 and apprentices will see a rise of 45p, bringing their hourly pay to £8.
He further notes that “as it becomes increasingly challenging for employers to recruit staff,” opportunities for young people to acquire essential skills, such as collaboration, will diminish.
Recent figures from the Office for National Statistics reveal that there are 702,000 unemployed individuals aged 16 to 24, an increase of 60,000 compared to the previous year.
Among those seeking work is 23-year-old Saif Miah from west London, who reports having applied daily for hospitality jobs since the summer without success.
“If you’re fortunate, you might receive a notification about not getting the job. Other times, there’s no feedback at all. It feels disheartening to be stuck in this cycle, which constantly undermines your motivation.
“You become so accustomed to rejection that it fosters feelings of inadequacy and triggers imposter syndrome.”
He is currently participating in a government-supported program at the Hospitality Skills Academy at Capital City College in central London, aimed at jobseekers aged 16 and above.
Mr. Miah is optimistic about finding a job after completing the course, which includes a three-day work placement.
Vince Kelly, the academy’s manager, explains that these training programs address “significant skills shortages” in the hospitality sector.
“The industry encompasses a wide range of areas—from high-end, five-star hotels to corporate catering, hospitals, schools, and care homes that are all seeking catering assistants. We focus on building confidence and role-playing scenarios.”
According to UKHospitality and research firm CGA, there has been a 13.6% decline in hospitality venues holding alcohol licenses since the pandemic, dropping from 3,470 in March 2020 to 2,995 by September 2025.
An analysis by the Trust for London based on ONS data indicates a 26% decrease in online job vacancies for entry-level positions within food preparation and hospitality over the last three years.
Chief executive Manny Hothi remarks, “We are still grappling with a significant cost-of-living crisis and high inflation, which makes it challenging for businesses to survive.”
“For restaurant or hotel owners, the costs associated with providing services have surged, while customers have less disposable income… these factors create a particularly tough environment that reduces job vacancies.”
Business proprietors within the hospitality sector indicate that they are already facing considerable pressure following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s initial Budget in October of last year, which raised hiring expenses alongside employer National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage.
Reeves has committed to establishing the lowest tax rates since 1991 for pubs, restaurants, and small retailers by increasing the levy on higher-value properties, such as warehouses used by Amazon and other online companies.
The government also reiterated that in addition to the £4.3 billion support package—which would save many independent pubs £4,800 annually—it is reducing licensing fees to encourage more establishments to offer outdoor dining and drinks, while maintaining a tax reduction on draught pints and capping corporation tax.
However, UKHospitality warns that “massive increases in rateable values” could result in an average pub paying an additional £12,900 in business rates over three years, with rates rising by 76% for pubs and 115% for hotels.
A company’s rateable value, determined by the estimated rent for a property, is integral to calculating its business rates.
Despite the bleak predictions from hospitality leaders, young individuals training in the field remain hopeful that their skills will be recognized and rewarded with job opportunities upon completion of their training.
