This week, nearly 50,000 government roles will be available across 80 regions in Russia as the country holds its fifth round of wartime elections.

Around 55 million Russian citizens are eligible to vote in direct elections, which include 19 gubernatorial contests, 11 parliamentary races, and 25 city council elections. In Crimea, under Russian administration, a vote will also be conducted to select the leader of Sevastopol, a key port city.

Most voters in Russia are expected to participate on Sunday, although some regions have opted for extended voting periods of three or two days, whether in person or online. These arrangements have faced condemnation from election observers for facilitating extensive electoral fraud.

The Kremlin has sought to eliminate any remaining political opposition since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet pockets of competition and intrigue can still be observed within Russia’s regional political sphere.

As a result, some races this week could exhibit real contest rather than the usual scripted displays of fidelity to the ruling United Russia party, which typically characterize elections in Russia.

“Despite overarching trends in domestic politics, Russia remains a significant and diverse nation where elections can manifest in various ways,” noted electoral experts Ksenia Smolyakova and Vadim Ternovoy in an analysis released by the Electoral Atlas project on Monday.

“In certain areas, political competition has been absent for decades, while in others, there is either a hidden or overt struggle among elites, with independent candidates challenging sitting regional leaders,” they added.

The gubernatorial contests in the northwestern Arkhangelsk region and Siberia’s Irkutsk region are expected to yield unpredictable results — a rarity in contemporary Russia.

In Irkutsk, an industrial center in southeastern Siberia, the incumbent Igor Kobzev from United Russia is gearing up for a contest with his Communist Party predecessor, Sergei Levchenko.

Levchenko surprised many by winning the governorship in a runoff in 2015, disrupting the plans of federal authorities and resulting in a prolonged standoff with Moscow. He was compelled to resign in 2019 following the arrest of his son on bribery charges—which many viewed as a politically motivated maneuver to oust him.

The governor’s resignation sparked a large rally in support of him in the region’s capital, Irkutsk.

Kobzev’s term has been fraught with numerous conflicts involving local elites, including members of his own party, United Russia.

“Igor Kobzev is on track to achieve a record — he’ll be the only governor in the Irkutsk region besides Boris Govorin who has sought a second term and succeeded. All other governors failed to serve even one full term, reflecting the region’s complex political dynamics,” analysts from the Electoral Atlas remarked, calling the gubernatorial race in Irkutsk “the most competitive in Russia.”

In Arkhangelsk, Alexander Tsybulsky, the current governor from United Russia, is vying for re-election against Roman Lyabikhov, a real estate tycoon backed by the Communist Party.

Arkhangelsk, the northernmost region of Russia, is home to fewer than 1 million residents and spans over 413,000 square kilometers, making it slightly smaller than Sweden.

A crucial access point to the Arctic Ocean, Arkhangelsk holds significant importance for the Kremlin’s geopolitical aspirations in the Arctic region and is also recognized as one of Russia’s most politically unstable areas.

In April 2020, former Governor Igor Orlov resigned following substantial protests against plans for a landfill at the Shiyes railway station, which marked one of the scarce instances of a successful anti-government movement in recent years.

Tsybulsky, who previously led the adjacent Nenets autonomous district—operating under Arkhangelsk’s administrative control—was appointed as Orlov’s successor by Putin.

Though originally appointed, Tsybulsky solidified his position by winning a popular vote, albeit only after primary rival Oleg Mandrykin, an activist opposing the Shiyes landfill, was barred from entry by the region’s electoral authority.

With federal connections and considerable financial resources, Lyabikhov may challenge Tsybulsky more effectively. However, analysts noted that he is still regarded by the local populace and elites as somewhat of an outsider, despite his regional origins.

“It remains uncertain how committed Lyabikhov is to this election—he may view it merely as a precursor to the 2026 State Duma elections,” the analysts indicated.

Notably, Lyabikhov is currently under investigation in Germany for breaching European sanctions.

The Central Electoral Commission of Russia has reported that approximately 1,400 Russian military personnel who fought in Ukraine have registered as candidates in this month’s regional and local elections, as part of the Kremlin’s strategy to promote veterans as part of the “new elite.”

“Individuals who have participated in the war are increasingly being recognized as a significant political brand,” observed political analyst Andras Toth-Czifra.

“However, this doesn’t imply that there are many of them or that they will secure real power…A large majority (1,052) of the 1,397 candidates across various parties, labeled as ‘special military operation veterans,’ will be contesting for essentially powerless municipal roles,” Toth-Czifra clarified.

Public records on candidates analyzed by Novaya Gazeta Europe suggest that several veterans could potentially be linked to war crimes in Ukraine.

Furthermore, data released by the independent electoral monitor Elections in Detail indicates that at least 2,531 candidates participating in this year’s elections have prior criminal convictions in Russia—twice as many as the registered war veterans.

Most of these candidates have been convicted of offenses such as theft, fraud, hooliganism, driving under the influence, and similar crimes.

Among those with criminal records competing for office is Tatar politician Ruslan Yusupov, a member of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR).

Yusupov has a history of three separate convictions for theft, arbitrary action, and robbery. He is running for the head of the Republic of Tatarstan but faces almost certain defeat, as current Governor Rustam Minnikhanov is anticipated to achieve a decisive victory in his region, known for its pervasive electoral irregularities.

These local elections are the first since a controversial law passed by the Kremlin that accelerates the dismantling of the two-tier system of local governance, which incited rare anti-government protests in Altai and opposition movements in the Krasnoyarsk region.

Among the areas where officials from the lowest tier of government will be elected is the republic of Sakha (Yakutia), a region nearly the size of India, yet with a population under 1 million people.

Sakha stands out as one of the few Russian regions that chose to maintain the two-tier governance structure against Kremlin directives, citing the essential role of local deputies in a vast area characterized by a predominantly rural populace.

The republic’s vibrant political climate and solidarity with those in Altai may stimulate renewed engagement in this year’s local elections.

“During the upcoming elections, do not heed your superiors or officials… listen to your heart,” urged popular Yakutian actor and filmmaker Alexei Mikhailov in a viral video shared on social media prior to the elections.

“We must all strive to become free individuals…only then will the world recognize us and our lives improve,” Mikhailov added.