Even prior to their official commencement on Friday, the joint military exercises Zapad-2025 conducted by Russia and Belarus had already stirred significant anxiety among NATO frontline states.
Earlier this week, Polish officials closed the border with Belarus citing “national security reasons,” while Lithuania heightened its national security measures and deployed additional troops to its border.
Moreover, the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace led to NATO’s first direct military engagement with Russia since the latter’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
This year’s Zapad drills, which are projected to involve fewer troops compared to 2021, will focus on decision-making regarding the use of nuclear arms and the deployment of Russian nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missiles.
Despite the heightened tensions and introduction of new technologies, analysts told The Moscow Times that these drills do not indicate an immediate threat.
Instead, they suggest that Russian and Belarusian forces will be practicing how NATO might react in a contested area—the border region between Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania—considered a potential flashpoint for future conflict.
“I would assess this through the lens of foreign policy, as Russia is clearly fixated on Ukraine at the moment and lacks the size and scope of resources required to launch an attack on Europe,” stated Kirill Shamiev, a military expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Conversely, European nations perceive ample reasons for concern. The last iteration of the Zapad drills in 2021, when Russia and Belarus claimed to have mobilized 200,000 troops, coincided with a military buildup that eventually served as a precursor to the invasion of Ukraine.
As a result, NATO countries bordering Belarus have begun their own military preparations, with Poland and Lithuania deploying approximately 40,000 and 17,000 troops, respectively, along the boundary.
In the Baltic Sea, Germany is orchestrating a simulation for the rapid deployment of NATO forces to Lithuania, known as Quadriga.
“I believe that each nation is preparing in its own unique way,” remarked Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda this week. “We take this time of elevated threat seriously, particularly given the active phase of the Zapad exercises and the events leading up to them.”
Moscow has rejected interpretations of Zapad-2025 as aggressive posturing.
“These are routine drills, directed at no one in particular,” asserted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov prior to the maneuvers. “They are part of ongoing defense cooperation and efforts to enhance collaboration between two strategic allies.”
However, neighboring NATO countries anticipate that the exercises will be used to probe their defensive capabilities.
A representative from the Polish Defense Ministry informed The Moscow Times that the country is bracing for potential “cyberattacks, GPS jamming, or minor military incidents that might test NATO’s response.”
“The forthcoming Zapad-2025 exercises, held by Russia and hosted by Belarus amid the ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, illustrate further aggressive actions and the strengthening of ties between the two nations,” the spokesperson added.
The Lithuanian Armed Forces did not respond to requests for comment.
During the drills, scheduled from September 12 to 16 in the regions of Grodno, Minsk, and Vitebsk, Russian and Belarusian troops will reportedly simulate repelling NATO offensives in two phases. Belarusian officials originally stated that 13,000 troops would participate but later revised that estimate to half that amount.
The initial phase will involve practicing defense against air strikes and establishing defensive positions, according to Belarusian Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveiko. The second phase, simulating a counteroffensive, “will include a series of operations aimed at neutralizing enemy forces and clearing the territory.”
Throughout the exercises, Muraveiko noted, troops would assess the effectiveness of new technologies in combat, including electronic warfare tools, drones, and weapons systems utilizing artificial intelligence.
Among the weaponry expected to be tested is the Oreshnik missile, Russia’s hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile revealed last year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the deployment of Oreshnik missiles—known for their difficulty to intercept and capability to carry nuclear warheads—in Belarus late last year.
Military expert Shamiev pointed out that the demonstration of these technologies reflects what he terms “iron diplomacy”: showcasing their latest defense capabilities in light of the current security climate.
He anticipates that Russia’s testing of new drone technologies—critical in its conflict in Ukraine—will be particularly indicative of its strategic outlook for potential operations in this region.
By the end of the year, Moscow is poised to launch a new military unit focused on unmanned warfare systems, while NATO countries like Poland are investing substantially in anti-drone measures along their borders.
The timing of these drills is particularly challenging for Belarus as it seeks to forge closer ties with the U.S. and Europe. Earlier this year, officials in Minsk decided to move the exercises further into Belarus, away from the western border, likely aiming to mitigate tension with Europe.
Yet NATO allies remain convinced that, should an attack occur, Russia would funnel troops and combat technology into Belarus and the Kaliningrad exclave to overwhelm defenses.
Confirming their fears, Poles were startled to learn this week that their military had intercepted Russian drones crossing into Polish airspace from Belarus, with some actually crashing into residential areas.
This incident prompted Warsaw to invoke NATO’s Article 4, initiating emergency discussions on security threats posed by Russia and escalating tensions just as Zapad-2025 was about to commence. Moscow has denied any intention to target Poland.
“This situation brings us closer to open conflict than we have been since World War II,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk commented.
