Ongoing drone strikes from Ukraine targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure have significantly cut the nation’s fuel exports to their lowest point since the start of the Ukraine invasion, as reported by Bloomberg on Wednesday.
According to data from the analytics firm Vortexa, compiled by Bloomberg, average daily fuel exports fell to 1.88 million barrels in the initial ten days of October, representing the lowest figure since early 2022.
Russia’s total refining capacity has also dropped below 5 million barrels per day, marking the lowest output since spring 2022, following attacks that have affected over 20 major refineries.
Seasonal maintenance activities have further complicated the situation, contributing to the decline.
In response to domestic shortages resulting from decreased refining capacity, the government has implemented a ban on gasoline exports.
Additionally, a strike in September caused damage to the Ust-Luga terminal, which is responsible for about 60% of Russia’s naphtha exports—a crucial ingredient for petrochemical production. Consequently, naphtha exports fell by 43% month-on-month in October, reaching only 198,000 barrels per day, the lowest since January 2022.
While diesel and gasoil exports rose by 13% compared to September, fuel oil exports saw an 8% decrease, as noted by Bloomberg.
This week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioned that Russian oil firms will continue to feel the impact of Ukrainian attacks for nearly a year, highlighting that one-third of refineries have been struck since August.
The IEA report indicated that refining output is not expected to return to normal levels before June 2026. This prediction does not factor in potential future damages from ongoing Ukrainian drone assaults. As of now, refining throughput is estimated to have declined by around 10% since the onset of the attacks.
Naphtha exports may also face additional challenges from Taiwan, one of Russia’s major purchasers alongside India.
In the first half of this year, Taiwan ramped up its imports of Russian naphtha sixfold compared to 2022, acquiring 1.9 million tons valued at $1.3 billion, according to estimates from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Nonetheless, Taiwan’s economy minister recently indicated that local firms would suspend purchases of Russian naphtha if the European Union requests it.
