The “America First” approach from the White House impacted Ukraine this week, as the U.S. government halted military aid shipments to preserve its own weapon reserves.
This decision occurred even after senior military officials analyzed that the aid package would not affect the United States’ munitions inventory or military preparedness. Many of the arms were already located in Europe when the suspension was enacted.
An insider informed The Economist that the halted delivery included 30 Patriot air defense missiles, one of the few systems capable of intercepting the hypersonic missiles deployed by Russia against Ukrainian urban centers.
Ukraine depleted its stock of Patriot missiles back in May, and only 740 of these missiles, which are priced at around $4 million each, are expected to be manufactured this year. Europe’s closest alternative is the SAMP/T system, but technical issues have limited its operational success.
Last week, President Donald Trump emotionally assured a Ukrainian journalist that Washington would “see if [we] can make some available,” although he did not commit to any guarantees and cautioned that the U.S. required some for its own use.
Additional air defense systems being withheld include 25 shoulder-mounted Stinger MANPADS and 92 AIM-7 “Sparrow” air-to-air missiles, which could be utilized on Ukraine’s F-16s or modified for ground air defense systems.
Since Trump’s return to the White House, Russia has doubled the number of aerial assaults on Ukraine.
While earlier strikes involved dozens of drones, recent offensives have seen hundreds used at once. Notably, on the night of June 29, Russia launched 477 drones and 60 missiles at various Ukrainian cities.
Efforts to extinguish fires and clear debris are still ongoing after yet another Russian missile strike, which was one of the most extensive air assaults to date—an intentionally large and cruel undertaking. In total, 550 targets were engaged, consisting of at least 330 Iranian-made “Shahed” drones and additional missiles.
Russia has also modernized its drone technology and strategies in an ongoing arms race with Ukraine.
The recent aerial bombardment, the largest since the conflict began, was initiated just hours after President Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump expressed his “disappointment” with the conversation, noting Putin’s unwillingness to consider halting the invasion of Ukraine.
John Foreman, a former U.K. defense attaché in Moscow, remarked to The Moscow Times, “With every escalating air attack against Ukrainian cities, Putin is reinforcing what he conveyed to Trump yesterday: that he is not interested in a ceasefire or negotiations, and that his goal is the dismantling of Ukrainian sovereignty.”
The pause in aid could significantly impact the situation on the ground. Ukraine was expected to receive approximately 8,500 rounds of 155mm artillery from U.S. reserves, representing about 20% of one month’s production.
Ukraine’s artillery units fired an average of 3,600 rounds daily last year, likely due to rationing caused by previous delays in U.S. assistance impacting the supply of new rounds.
European nations are projected to ramp up their production of 155mm shells to 2 million annually by 2026. Meanwhile, Ukraine has commenced domestic production of these shells as well as 122mm munitions for its aging Soviet-era military hardware, aiming to manufacture 100,000 shells in 2025 and 600,000 the following year.
In contrast, Russia reportedly produces as much ammunition in three months as NATO does in an entire year, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and has increased its imports of chemicals used for explosives manufacturing.
Additionally, Russia is reportedly supported by North Korea, which provides half of the artillery shells utilized on the battlefield, based on Western intelligence assessments. Although many of these shells are of inferior quality, their volume has enabled Russia to seize more territory in Ukraine since shipments commenced.
The U.S. has also withheld other crucial battlefield weapons, such as 125 shoulder-fired AT4 rocket launchers and 142 Hellfire missiles, both of which are vital for targeting tanks and fortified Russian positions. Ukraine was also supposed to receive over 250 artillery rockets compatible with its HIMARS systems, which Kyiv has leveraged to hit Russian ammunition depots and logistics points.
Striking these targets is essential for Ukraine to diminish some of Russia’s material advantage. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated in April that Ukraine succeeded in halving Russia’s daily ammunition consumption to 23,000 rounds, although that number has since increased as Russia’s stockpile grew.
Experts assert that no single weapon will be decisive in battle. Instead, what is crucial is that Kyiv possesses a diverse range of equipment in sufficient quantities to counteract Russian forces effectively.
Russia’s ongoing summer offensive faces numerous challenges, including poorly trained soldiers, logistical difficulties, subpar intelligence, and its own shortages. This conflict remains one of attrition, with the substantial territorial gains achieved by both sides in 2022 now a distant memory. While Ukraine succeeded in pushing Russian troops back from Sumy at the end of June, Russia is making slow advancements in the southwestern Zaporizhzhia region.
On Friday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged Europe to enhance its support for Ukraine’s defense.
While NATO’s European members agreed last week to boost their defense budgets and strengthen their industrial capacities, these efforts will require time to yield results. Although European systems, such as the French Foudre MLRS rocket—considered a possible alternative to HIMARS—are under development, Washington remains critical to Ukraine’s defense strategy.
