The possibility of a temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine—or even a negotiated resolution to the conflict—remains distant following the second round of direct negotiations in Istanbul on Monday.
Currently, the Kremlin is demanding extensive territorial, military, and geopolitical concessions from Ukraine and the West while simultaneously intensifying its military offensive along the front lines. Reports suggest that President Vladimir Putin perceives Russia as gaining the upper hand.
By continuing diplomatic engagement and not pausing military operations, Moscow can portray itself as open to negotiations while leveraging its battlefield advantages.
However, more than three years after invading Ukraine, does Russia genuinely possess the resources to sustain a long-term conflict?
The Moscow Times examines the present situation:
Ukrainian military expert Ivan Stupak expressed skepticism about Russian officials’ assertions that the country can sustain its military efforts for many years.
“No one can sustain a fight indefinitely. Russia has considerable resources and personnel, but there are limits,” commented Stupak, an advisor to Ukraine’s national security committee, in an interview with The Moscow Times.
Recently, Russian forces have intensified their offensive in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, particularly after Putin’s announcement to establish a “buffer zone” along the border, leading to the capture of villages in the Sumy region, advances in Kharkiv, and efforts to encircle the key city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk.
The Russian military reportedly conducted an average of nearly 184 assaults per day in May, a 19% rise compared to April, according to information from the Ukrainian open-source intelligence group Deep State.
Pavel Aksyonov, a military analyst with the BBC Russian Service, noted that Russia is amassing forces to exploit weak points in Ukraine’s defenses and break through.
“The aim of the Russian army is to wear down Ukrainian forces and prevent reinforcements from reaching critical areas. However, taking the city of Sumy seems unlikely due to insufficient strength,” Aksyonov informed The Moscow Times.
Stupak pointed out that the Ukrainian military is currently at a disadvantage after extended fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, which Ukraine withdrew from earlier this year after a significant cross-border offensive last summer.
“During the Kursk operation, we incurred substantial losses in personnel and equipment, and many units were redeployed there, even from Donetsk. Now the frontline in Donetsk is weakening, and Russia is capitalizing on that. They are attempting to surround Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka and are allocating additional forces to the area,” Stupak explained, adding that the frontline remains resilient for the time being.
Despite these developments, analysts from the West and Ukraine warn that Russia’s territorial gains may not be sustainable. The Kremlin is reportedly struggling with considerable equipment losses and increasing logistical challenges.
A Pentagon intelligence report cited by The Washington Post estimated that Russia has lost more than 10,000 military vehicles, around 3,000 tanks, and approximately 250 aircraft since the onset of the war.
The stockpiles of Soviet-era armored vehicles are nearly depleted, and current tank production, estimated at around 200 annually, is unlikely to replace these losses in the near future.
Signs of strain are also visible on the battlefield.
Russian troops have increasingly been seen using civilian vehicles, including a Porsche Cayenne SUV, as depicted in a video circulating on Russian Telegram channels. These vehicles often become targets for Ukrainian drones.
Despite suffering significant troop casualties, Russia has managed to maintain its manpower through aggressive recruitment initiatives and by adapting its tactics.
Military experts indicate that Moscow has significantly increased drone production and is heavily reliant on low-cost, high-volume assaults aimed at probing vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses.
“They are concentrating forces, deploying large numbers of drones, and targeting Ukrainian supply lines before advancing,” Aksyonov noted.
Nonetheless, he believes that Russia is unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough with its current resources.
Current estimates suggest that at its present pace, Russia could take up to three years to capture the entirety of Donetsk. Securing additional regions would demand far more time, resources, and bloodshed.
For the Kremlin, however, ideological and political factors appear to trump military strategy.
“Russia may be facing resource limitations, but that doesn’t change its determination to conduct war,” stated Pavel Luzin, a Russian military analyst. “For the Russian government, this is about survival and legitimacy. While Russia desperately needs a ceasefire, it is politically unable to afford one. Ukraine is not seeking peace at any cost.”
Luzin asserted that Russia hopes that time and fatigue will shift the balance in its favor. Should Western military and financial assistance to Ukraine dwindle, or if domestic pressure mounts on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to seek peace, Russia could secure a favorable position in negotiations.
However, while U.S. military support has indeed slowed, European nations continue to provide backing to Kyiv. Furthermore, Ukraine is ramping up its own defense production capabilities, increasingly manufacturing weapons domestically, according to Aksyonov.
“All these significant attacks on civilians are likely occurring because the Kremlin is waiting for Ukrainians to grow weary of the conflict and pressure Zelensky to accept peace at any price. But that hasn’t happened,” Stupak pointed out.
