The Russian stock market experienced a surge at the beginning of Friday’s trading session, spurred by news of a new plan from the Trump administration aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This development has raised hopes that officials from Kyiv and Moscow might soon reach a peace agreement after nearly four years of hostilities.
At the opening bell, the Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX) rose by 2.4%, reaching 2,691 points, with most major stocks seeing increases between 3% and 5%.
Leading the gains were Tatneft and Aeroflot, each seeing their shares climb roughly 4%. Gazprom, Sberbank, and Lukoil also posted increases of around 3%.
The upward trend began on Thursday evening when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his willingness to engage in “honest” discussions with the United States and Europe regarding a proposed U.S.-Russian peace initiative, which, according to sources, has the backing of President Donald Trump.
This 28-point plan entails significant territorial and military compromises from Ukraine, along with potential sanctions relief for Russia. Zelensky emphasized that any agreement should ensure a “dignified peace” that honors Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Bloomberg reported that Washington has advised Zelensky to accept the proposed deal. According to the Financial Times, U.S. officials anticipate that he will accept it “before Thanksgiving” next Thursday, as the White House aims for an “aggressive” timeline to conclude the conflict by the New Year.
Investment banker Yevgeny Kogan noted that the positive reaction from the Russian market indicates growing investor confidence, with the MOEX gaining 8% over the past three days.
Kogan suggested that the index could potentially rise to 3,400 points if the peace discussions make headway but cautioned that any negotiations would likely come with volatility.
“This is a high-risk, high-reward scenario, and while the rally may persist, market reactions will remain sensitive to developments from the talks,” he remarked in a Telegram post on Friday morning.
Some aspects of the proposed U.S.-Russian peace agreement may face pushback from Kyiv, particularly provisions that would require Ukraine to relinquish territory to Russia and significantly diminish its military capabilities.
Additionally, it remains uncertain whether President Vladimir Putin would agree to release $100 billion in frozen Russian assets for the reconstruction and investment in Ukraine, as detailed in the proposal.
In the meantime, oil prices fell by 1.5% to $62.42 per barrel, marking a third consecutive day of declines. This drop is attributed to concerns regarding an oversupply in the global market and potential disruptions that might arise from concluding the war in Ukraine.
The rally in Russia’s stock market occurred while global markets faced downturns amid increasing worries about an AI bubble. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped by 2.4% by the end of Friday’s trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell by approximately 2%.
