Russia’s monthly inflation rate experienced a slight uptick in May, marking the first increase in six months, despite a decline in annual inflation during the same timeframe.

According to data from the state statistics agency Rosstat, consumer prices rose by 0.43% in May, up marginally from 0.4% in April.

Economists had generally anticipated a continued deceleration in price increases, with most projections suggesting a monthly rise between 0.22% and 0.25%.

In May, annual inflation, considered a more stable measure of price changes, decreased to 9.8% from 10.2% in April. This suggests that the annual inflation rate is gradually moving closer to the Central Bank’s target of 4%.

However, following a rise in inflation this year—1.2% in January and 0.8% in February—the Central Bank now forecasts price growth to decrease to between 7-8% by the end of the year, postponing its 4% target to 2026.

Analysts from the research firm Tverdye Tsifry estimated the seasonally adjusted annualized rate at 5.4% in May, a slight decline from April’s 5.5%. Gazprombank provided a similar estimate, although it had previously assessed April’s figure to be 6.2%.

The situation remains mixed across different sectors. Non-food items, buoyed by a robust ruble, are experiencing outright deflation in certain categories.

Conversely, food prices are rising significantly, with analysts estimating the annual inflation rate for this category to be around 11%.

Inflation in the service sector has eased somewhat, a trend economists attribute to the strengthening ruble and a slight dip in consumer demand.

For the time being, price pressures seem to be diminishing, with Rosstat indicating a 0.03% increase in prices for the week of June 3-9 and a 0.04% rise since the beginning of the month.

Seasonal drops in fruit and vegetable prices are predicted to help keep inflation under control throughout June, with Tverdye Tsifry projecting a modest monthly increase of only 0.2%.