Hello and welcome to “Regions Calling” by The Moscow Times, a newsletter that highlights the different regions and ethnic republics of Russia.

The period from Orthodox Christmas on January 7 to Epiphany on January 19 signifies the peak of Russia’s 12 Days of Christmas festivities, known as “sviatki” in Russian.

In Slavic customs, “sviatki” are linked to folk traditions and fortune-telling, where individuals seek insights into the coming year.

Embracing the season’s spirit, we dedicate our first newsletter of 2026 to looking ahead. We asked five experts to identify key developments in Russia’s regions and ethnic republics they will be monitoring this year and whether they anticipate any changes to the current wartime environment.

Here are their insights.

These interviews have been condensed for brevity and clarity.

Andras Toth-Czifra, an authority on Russia’s domestic politics and political economy

I will be focusing on the liquidity issues that emerge in local and regional budgets, the challenges they introduce or amplify, and the financial and political flexibility that governors have to address them.

Most regions are entering 2026 with tight budgets and diminished reserves, yet the demand for social policy spending is likely to remain intense. We are already witnessing the consequences in regions such as Kemerovo and Irkutsk. Regions heavily reliant on declining industries may also experience similar challenges in 2026.

I will additionally monitor the municipal administration reform, which has sparked backlash not only from citizens but also lower-tier elites. This situation could influence regional political stability in the lead-up to the 2026 Duma election.

The reform reduces the number of lower-tier administrative roles available for returning veterans to be ‘safely’ appointed, as deemed by the Kremlin, further intensifying tensions.

Iliuza Mukhamedianova, social researcher from Bashkortostan

I will focus on grassroots movements in the republics rather than merely formal political activities.

Local protests, cultural initiatives, educational projects, and subtle activism are often overlooked by mainstream media, yet they provide significant insights into societal conditions. In Bashkortostan, this notably includes the Baymak protests.

Environmental disputes related to resource extraction and land use are also critical, particularly in rural and Indigenous communities. These flashpoints represent where themes of identity, economic disparity, and political resistance converge.

I don’t expect swift or dramatic positive changes in the institutional political life of ethnic republics. Instead, I foresee a deterioration of the current situation, with increased repression and tighter governmental control.

Nevertheless, people in Russia’s republics are likely to form new grassroots networks and cultivate innovative forms of solidarity actions. Such shifts may lay the groundwork for future transformations in the country.

Harold Chambers, expert on nationalism, conflict, and security in the North Caucasus

I will be closely monitoring socioeconomic strains, such as infrastructure failures, as well as inflation and unemployment rates, threats from extremist groups like the Islamic State and other violent factions, and any forms of resistance, both peaceful and violent.

Key events I will be observing include the official launch of the new Putin neighborhood in Grozny, Dagestan’s parliamentary elections, and the Duma elections. The year 2026 also marks five years since the removal of Aslan Byutukayev, the alleged leader of the Islamic State in Chechnya, which may lead to increased activity from insurgents or the authorities.

Two main factors may contribute to greater instability in the North Caucasus in 2026.

First, the repercussions of the Ukraine invasion are increasingly affecting the region, encompassing the societal fallout from mobilization efforts and heightened actions by Ukraine-aligned groups, alongside ongoing drone attacks.

Secondly, the power struggle in Chechnya is anticipated to escalate. As Ramzan Kadyrov deepens his son’s involvement in the republic, federal officials opposed to Kadyrov may seek ways to obstruct or undermine his succession plans.

Lana Pylaeva, human rights activist and analyst from Komi

Over the past year, the Russian government has heightened its focus on Indigenous communities. Vladimir Putin even designated 2026 as the Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia, introducing two new holidays.

Russia is increasingly leveraging Indigenous peoples to further its geopolitical agendas, seeking to enhance its image in the Global South as a decolonial alternative to Western powers while simultaneously targeting Indigenous activists in a surge of arrests in December.

Thus, I will primarily track developments regarding the infringements of Indigenous peoples’ rights. I expect further repression, with expressions of Indigenous identities being increasingly confined to government-approved celebrations.

I will also keep an eye on the ambitious infrastructure projects Russia is advancing in the Arctic, such as the establishment of a vast open-air nature reserve and a year-round resort in the Northern Urals.

In my native republic of Komi, I’ll monitor potential gold mining endeavors at the Chudnoe deposit, along with the extreme plans to construct a water pipeline from the Pechora and Northern Dvina rivers to the occupied Donbas.

Of course, I will continue to follow local activism in Komi. It fills me with hope to see individuals on the ground who persist in their struggle.

Dr. Maria Ochir-Goryaeva, historian and human rights advocate of Oirat (Kalmyk) descent

The same issues that concerned me in 2025 will remain my focus in 2026.

I have watched with worry as legislation stripping the sovereignty of Russia’s republics has been enacted consistently. The abolition of indigenous language and literature education in schools is being systematically implemented.

The militarization of both school and preschool education is worsening. While fathers and brothers are being lost in an overseas war, youth are being groomed for a similar fate.

However, I have also observed the rise of new grassroots initiatives aimed at revitalizing national identity, culture, and language, which is encouraging.

The world welcomed 2026 with an inner readiness for significant change: either a peace agreement that ends this dreadful war, or an escalation leading to a potential third world war. Both scenarios bear equal possibility.

An era is approaching that calls for resilient individuals. Regardless of how international circumstances evolve, every Kalmyk and every Oirat must strive to safeguard our republic and our identity as a people. Our future is contingent upon ordinary citizens, as those in power seem unconcerned.