The missile strike in Ukraine utilizing Russia’s Oreshnik, near the EU border, is aimed at intimidating Kyiv’s Western allies and reflects Vladimir Putin’s dissatisfaction with recent foreign policy defeats, including those in Venezuela, analysts stated on Friday.
Shortly after European and U.S. negotiators presented a peacekeeping proposal for post-war Ukraine, Russia targeted an infrastructure facility in Lviv, situated in the western part of the country, with the Oreshnik nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) during the early hours of Friday.
This incident is believed to mark only the second combat deployment of this missile.
While Moscow claims that the attack was a reprisal for an alleged drone strike on a residence used by Putin in December, almost four years since Russia’s invasion, analysts argue that the action serves to convey a clear warning to Western leaders and instill fear among European citizens.
According to Cyrille Bret, a Russia specialist at the Montaigne Institute in Paris, “Vladimir Putin is leveraging this incident to convey messages to the West, as he could have accomplished similar operational objectives without resorting to this missile.”
He noted that, “As Europeans enhance their air defense systems, this serves as a reminder of their vulnerability.”
The Kremlin has characterized the Oreshnik as a cutting-edge weapon that travels at hypersonic speeds, capable of striking targets throughout Europe while being difficult to intercept.
On a call Friday, leaders from Britain, France, and Germany condemned Russia’s missile usage, deeming it “escalatory and unacceptable,” as reported by a U.K. government spokeswoman.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer remarked that Russia was using “fabricated allegations to justify the attack,” according to the same spokeswoman. Ukraine has denied any intentions of targeting Putin’s residence.
Lviv’s Mayor Andriy Sadovy stated on Facebook that the missile strike represented “a new level of threat — not only for Ukraine but for the overall security of Europe.”
The Oreshnik missile, named after the Russian term for hazel tree, was reportedly first deployed against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro in 2024.
The decision to target an area approximately 70 kilometers (about 40 miles) from the EU border was significant, according to analysts.
“It’s much closer to the EU’s borders,” observed Etienne Marcuz, an associate fellow at the French think tank Foundation for Strategic Research, on X.
“This should likely be interpreted as a message directed at European countries,” he noted, suggesting the impact of the strike was “probably more psychological than operational.”
Some experts viewed the attack as an effort by Putin to reaffirm his authority following setbacks, including the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by Washington, the seizure of a Russian-flagged ship in the North Atlantic, and recent protests in Iran challenging Moscow-aligned powers.
Mick Ryan, a retired major general from the Australian army and a Ukraine war analyst, asserted that “it is a psychological weapon — an instrument in Putin’s cognitive warfare against Ukraine and the West — rather than one of mass physical destruction.”
He remarked that the use of the Oreshnik signified “a sign of a fearful, anxious leader, not one who is confident and anticipating victory.”
Ryan noted that the action could not conceal the reality that Russia has limited influence “to shape events or react to military contingencies involving its allies and friends beyond its borders.”
Timothy Ash, an emerging market economist with a focus on Russia, echoed this sentiment, observing that the on-ground impact of the missile strike appeared relatively limited.
“The Oreshnik is highly effective but also incredibly costly, and in terms of a cost-benefit analysis, it makes no sense to deploy these in Ukraine,” he wrote.
He added that “the launch of the Oreshnik seemed more of a public relations move, potentially aimed at the Trump administration, signaling Russia’s broader dissatisfaction with the current global situation.”
While Russia labels the Oreshnik a hypersonic missile, Western defense analysts argue that it is not a groundbreaking weapon.
“It is most likely NOT a hypersonic missile,” Marcuz stated, further mentioning that Europe possesses the capability to intercept IRBMs.
“The missile’s multiple warheads could indeed pose challenges, depending on their release timing,” he added.
In December, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Putin, announced that the weapon had been stationed in Belarus, which borders NATO’s eastern flank.
