A recent report reveals that the number of students enrolled in primary schools across London is experiencing a significant decline, attributed to a combination of low birth rates and families relocating away from the city.

Since 2019, there has been a reduction of 150,000 students, as determined by the Education Policy Institute (EPI), which anticipates an additional decrease of 400,000 students in English schools by the decade’s end.

The report indicates that nine out of the ten local authorities witnessing the steepest declines nationwide are located in London, with the most considerable changes occurring in the inner boroughs.

Schools operate on a funding model that allocates resources on a per-student basis, making dwindling enrollment numbers a major concern, as sharp reductions can lead to school closures.

The independent think tank highlighted that Westminster has seen nearly a 16% drop in primary pupil enrollment from 2020-21 to 2024-25. Additionally, Southwark has experienced over a 12% decrease in the same five-year period, resulting in a loss of six primary schools.

In 2012-13, approximately 17% of primary students in reception had moved out of the city by Year 6. This figure rose to 20% for students who began their reception year in 2017-18, according to the findings.

The ten local authorities with the most significant declines in primary student numbers over the past five years include: Westminster, Lambeth, Southwark, Hackney, Camden, Hammersmith and Fulham, Islington, Merton, Wandsworth, and Redcar and Cleveland in North Yorkshire.

Jon Andrews, the head of analysis and director for school system and performance at the EPI, noted on BBC Radio 4’s Today program that a “baby boom” occurred post-millennium from 2010 until around 2012, but that trend has since reversed and is now declining.

However, he suggested that the situation in London is more complex. “There are indications that children are moving to neighboring areas and even leaving the public education system entirely—likely to enroll in independent schools or, more commonly, to immigrate abroad,” he noted.

Andrews explained that funding is largely tied to student enrollment, but operational costs do not decrease proportionately. Educating a class of 25 students costs the same as a class of 30, so losing five students could result in a budget reduction of approximately £30,000 to £40,000.

“This means schools are required to maintain the same classes and curricular offerings with diminished financial resources, potentially leading to staff reductions and cutbacks in extracurricular activities and broader curriculum options,” he added.

The National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) stated that these findings validate the experiences of school leaders on the ground. General Secretary Paul Whiteman expressed concerns that unpredictable demographic shifts are complicating long-term planning for school placements.

He emphasized the need for a cohesive strategy focused on students and communities, advocating against hasty decisions that could compromise stability. “Instead of diminishing funding or closing schools, we urge the government to sustain investments in local authorities to support staffing and resources,” Whiteman said.

Earlier this year, Damian Hinds, a former education secretary and Conservative MP, proposed that school funding should not be solely determined on a per-pupil basis due to decreasing enrollment numbers, suggesting that this approach no longer accurately reflects funding trends.

A spokesperson from the Department of Education acknowledged the “challenges presented by demographic shifts.” They stated, “Our system aims to offer schools greater certainty regarding funding, enabling better long-term planning.”

Currently, per-pupil funding is at unprecedented levels, projected to reach £69.5 billion by the 2028-29 academic year. As part of broader efforts to ensure children receive a strong start, the government has allocated £37 million to 300 primary schools for repurposing excess space, which has resulted in more than 5,000 new childcare slots through the rollout of school-based nurseries.