Russian forces are advancing steadily in eastern Ukraine, making small but closely monitored gains in the Donetsk region while the Trump administration works to facilitate a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv.
The most notable advance took place earlier this month near Dobropillya, in northern Donetsk, where Russian troops moved forward in two directions that resembled bunny ears.
This maneuver garnered significant attention, being viewed as Russia’s quickest progress in months. However, military analysts assert that these advances have not established solid control. Ukrainian defenses have effectively halted further Russian progress, and Moscow has faced challenges in solidifying its positions.
“The objective isn’t to engage the Ukrainians directly but to push forward as much as possible… in hopes that someone will break through,” military analyst Alexei Alshansky stated to The Moscow Times. “This approach leads to substantial losses.”
An independent analysis by the exiled news platform Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian service reported confirmed Russian military fatalities exceeding 120,000, although the actual figure is believed to be significantly higher.
Currently, Russia controls approximately 70% of Donetsk, which includes the regional capital that fell to pro-Kremlin separatists in 2014. The portions still held by Ukraine hold considerable strategic importance, and many speculate this is why President Vladimir Putin is urging Kyiv to surrender this territory as part of a potential peace deal.
Kyiv has established fortified defenses across a belt of cities stretching roughly 50 kilometers (30 miles) from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the north to Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka in the south, turning them into a robust barrier against further Russian incursions.
Losing these positions, whether due to combat or a peace settlement, would be a severe setback, Alshansky remarked, highlighting the extensive resources Ukraine has invested in its defenses.
“If Russia can seize defensive positions with intact fortifications without significant resistance, it will undoubtedly use them as a launching point for future conflicts,” he explained.
The city of Pokrovsk, located west of the current front lines and crucial for Ukrainian logistics, is also under increasing pressure. Russian military bloggers and analysts from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted heightened Russian attacks there, indicating that Moscow may be looking for vulnerabilities.
However, experts advise caution regarding claims of renewed battlefield momentum.
Yury Fedorov, another military analyst, contended that Russia’s primary focus remains around Lyman, northeast of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, where its forces are testing Ukraine’s defensive network. Nonetheless, he pointed out that the front lines have generally remained stable.
In other areas, Russia continues to conduct smaller-scale assaults in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Ukraine warned this month that Moscow is repositioning troops there to prepare for another offensive.
But in both regions, challenging terrain and rivers have made large-scale offensives difficult to maintain, especially during a time when drones can target bridges and crossing sites, Alshansky informed The Moscow Times.
These gradual advances highlight the difficulties arising from Moscow’s reliance on what analysts term “small infantry group tactics.” Instead of launching mass assaults, pairs or trios of soldiers may attempt to breach Ukrainian defenses via separate routes, which is believed to have occurred during the advance near Dobropillya this month. If any succeed, reinforcements move in behind them.
While this tactic has allowed Russia to make incremental gains in specific areas, ISW points out that it leaves troops vulnerable to counterattacks.
Currently, Ukraine’s strategy is to delay Russian advances whenever possible, according to analyst Fedorov, prolonging the conflict as both sides wait to see if time or external political pressures will tilt the scales. “Both sides are engaged in what can only be described as a race against time,” he remarked.
