A new report indicates that the ongoing decrease in London’s birth rate is leading to a persistent decline in the need for school places across the city.
According to London Councils, a consortium of local governments, there is an anticipated reduction of 3.6% in the number of children entering reception classes in the capital over the next four years. This trend is linked to a 20% drop in birth rates in London from 2012 to 2022.
Ian Edwards from London Councils noted that local authorities are providing support to schools as the need for places diminishes.
The organization has also forecasted a 2.9% decline in demand for Year 7 pupils, which translates to approximately 100 fewer classes at the secondary school level.
Fewer students directly affect the funding allocated to schools, potentially forcing them to make tough choices to balance their finances. This might involve cutting staff, which could hinder the schools’ capability to assist children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND), as pointed out by London Councils.
Other possible measures include merging or shutting down schools.
While the majority of London boroughs anticipate continued declines in student numbers, some areas expect growth.
The report mentions that seven outer London boroughs foresee an increase in reception admissions, as well as four outer boroughs predicting more Year 7 students over the next four years. However, the specific names of these boroughs were not disclosed.
According to London Councils, the primary cause of the reduced demand for school places is the declining birth rate in the city. Between 2012 and 2022, there were 27,490 fewer live births in London.
This decline has been linked to a lack of affordable family housing throughout the capital.
Mr. Edwards, who serves as the executive member for children and young people at London Councils, remarked on the challenging circumstances but emphasized the commitment of councils to secure enough high-quality school placements in each locality.
“Boroughs will persist in collaborating with essential education stakeholders in London to lessen the consequences of this demand decrease on school budgets and the achievements of children,” he stated.
